【摘要】 赤潮藻类的细胞密度超过一定的阈值就能形成危害巨大的赤潮.基于渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的连续监测数据,运用极值理论研究了藻类细胞密度的超阈值分布特性.研究结果表明,赤潮藻类细胞密度的概率分布有比正态分布更重的尾部,服从Pareto型的超阈值分布函数.通过实际监测数据,建立了渤海湾赤潮藻类细胞密度的Pareto型超阈值分布函数,并通过该函数计算了藻类细胞密度分别超过给定阈值的风险概率.更多还原

【Abstract】 When the concentration of algae exceeds a threshold,there will be harmful algal blooms.Based on the data of concentration of harmful algae in Bohai Bay,using extreme value theory,the peak-over-threshold distribution of the algae concentration was analyzed.It demonstrates that the distribution of algae concentration is generalized Pareto distribution,which has a heavier tail than normal distribution.Based on the real field data,a generalized Pareto distribution function of the algae concentration was obtained.And the peak-over-threshold risk probabilities of different algae concentrations were calculated.更多还原