【摘要】 针对乌兰木伦河年径流量减少对工农业和生态环境影响的问题,简要介绍了重新标度极差分析法的原理和方法,计算了该河41 a的年径流量变化的赫斯特指数H,确定了其变异点,分析了其前后两时段年径流量差异的显著性。研究表明,乌兰木伦河年径流量变化的赫斯特指数H为0.736 7,大于特征值0.5,年径流量序列减小的趋势具有一定的持久性,1993年后年径流量减小趋势加速,其前后两时段的年径流量减小差异显著。说明20世纪90年代后乌兰木伦河流域大量的浅部煤田开发、工农业迅速发展及城镇化过程的加速对该河年径流量产生了显著影响,加速了其径流量减小的趋势,必须引起高度重视。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper researches the influences on industry and agriculture and environment by the runoff decreasing.Rescaled Range Analysis method(also R/S method) is simply introduced.Then analyze the 41 years runoff sequences in Wulanmulun river basin from 1961 to 2001 by using R/S method.Through the analysis,we find that the basin’s Hurst indices are bigger than 0.5,it suggests that the the continual decreasing trend of annual runoff sequences has persistence.The aberrance point year is 1993.There are significant differences between them.The analysis result shows that the over draft of shallow coal seams,the rapid development of agriculture and industry and the acceleration of urbanization had an important impact on the runoff deceasing after 1990s.These factors have accelerated the decreasing trend of runoff.We must pay a great attention to this problems.更多还原