【摘要】 土地利用类型之间的竞争关系是土地变化科学研究的重要问题,通过建立绿色空间和城市建设用地之间的非线性竞争模式,分情景模拟并预测了绿色空间与建设用地之间随着时间发展的竞争机制。研究结果表明:如果按照目前的建设用地和绿色空间的发展态势,绿色空间在未来的20 a内将大幅度下降,不利于北京市建设宜居城市的目的,前3种情景是不可取的。为了维持生态环境的不断改善,建设用地增加率应该减少一半,绿色空间面积变化率保持在年均增长0.47%的水平上,建议北京市加大绿色空间的面积,既能保证经济发展所需要的建设用地增长,又能保持绿色空间规模不减少,这是一种比较良好的发展模式。建议北京市在土地利用总体规划中,确保绿色空间规模不能减少。同时还表明非线性竞争模式对于模拟绿色空间发展变化的动力学机制,对于合理安排各项用地规模具有一定的科学指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 A nonlinear competition model has been set up to research the relationship between green space and urban construction land.Different scenes of change state were carried out to simulate the tendency of green space.The result indicates that there exists complex nonlinear relationship between green space and urban construction land and the growth rate of urban construction land should decrease half compared with before scenes.In order to harmonize the relationship between human and nature,it suggests that the change rate of green space should rise and should not continue to decrease in future land plan.Nonlinear competition model is useful tool to research the inner mechanism between green space and urban construction land.更多还原