【摘要】 利用黑龙江省和哈尔滨市的气温资料,通过5种气候模式,对黑龙江省及哈尔滨市的气温变化特点,以及未来50a的变化趋势作了分析。结果表明:20世纪80年代以来,黑龙江省气候明显变暖,在1881—2001年120a间哈尔滨年平均气温上升了1.4℃,全省1981—2000年较1951—1980年间平均气温上升近1.0℃。数值模拟结果显示,2030年和2050年的气温将分别升高1.9℃和2.4℃,到2050年≥10℃积温带将北移约5个纬距。气候变暖对水稻、玉米、大豆和小麦生长发育的影响很大,除大豆增产外,其他作物产量均有所降低。因此,必须进行作物结构调整才能逐步适应气候变化,获得增产。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the air temperature data of Heilongjiang Province and Harbin City, the centurial variation characteristics of air temperature in Harbin were analyzed and the trend of future 50 years was projected by using the simulations of five climate models. Results show that the annual temperature in Harbin has increased by 1.4 ℃ in the 120 years of 1881-2001, and Heilongjiang climate has become warm remarkably since the 1980s, and the mean temperature of 1981-2000 over the whole Heilongjiang Province risen by 1.0 ℃ relative to that of 1951-1980. Projected results show that the temperature would rise up by 1.94℃ in 2030 and by 2.42 ℃ in 2050 in comparison with the mean temperature of 1961-1990. The accumulated temperature zone was projected to move northward by 2.5° and 5.0° latitudes in 2030 and 2050, respectively, relative to the mean position of 1951-1980. Effects of climate warming on major crops (paddy, corn, soybean and wheat) will be prominent, and except soybean other crop’s yields will decline due to shorter growth period and earlier maturation. So the crop structure adjustment is necessary to address climate change.更多还原