【摘要】 运用灰色系统理论和方法,以北京市密云县檀营乡1999—2003年畜禽粪便猪粪当量年产量为依据,构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,模型为X(1)(t+1)=3.5284 e0.1617t-3.0884,后检验比值C=0.1812,P=1,模型的预测精度达到一级,1999—2003年平均相对误差为4.38%,模型的预测效果比较理想。更多还原

【Abstract】 The theory and methods of Grey System were used to establish the Forecasting model of GM(1,1) to predict the total swine manure in Tanying Miyun Beijing on the basis of swine manure data from 1999 to 2003.The GM(1,1)prediction model was established as X(1)(t+1)=3.528 4e0.1617t-3.088 4,The mean error of regression testing was 4.38%,The difference check of the prediction model:C=0.181 2,P=1 and the model precision ranks the first class.The model was proved to be feasible and suitable in this study.更多还原