【摘要】 在江西44个湿地松林区设立调查点,对影响萧氏松茎象发生的16个林分因子进行调查,并应用逐步回归方法进行分析。结果表明,萧氏松茎象危害程度(y)与林下植被盖度(X10)和枯腐层厚度(X17)呈显著正相关。依此,建立多元回归模型:y=-0.071 2+0.496 7X10+0.016 8X17。经检验,该模型正判率达80%。因此,可用该模型对萧氏松茎象危害程度进行风险评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 44 plots were set up in different slash pine plantations in 7 counties in Jiangxi Province,16 stand factors affecting the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi Zhang were surveyed in the study.The results showed that the undergrowth cover and the thickness of rotten branch and fallen leaves were two significant factors selected through stepwise regression analysis,and a direct correlation exits between the two factors and the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi.Using the two key factors,a multiphase linear regression model was made:y=-0.071 2+0.496 7X10+0.016 8X17.The accuracy of the risk analysis is 80%.Therefore applying the multiphase linear regression model,the risk analysis of the harm extent of the Hylobitelus xiaoi is feasible.更多还原