【摘要】 道路事故、道路施工等突发因素干扰了道路正常运营状态,严重时将造成交通网络的局部阻塞;同时道路使用者感知交通网络环境的变化具有多样性和滞后性。正是因为这些不确定因素的存在,交通网络也呈现出不确定性特征。针对出行时耗需要保障的出行决策优化问题,引入可信性理论体系的测度标准;将路段出行时耗变量模糊处理;构建了在一定显著度水平条件以出行总时耗为优化目标,以出行路径为决策变量的模糊机会约束模型,给出基于模糊模拟的组合优化算法,计算示例表明,模型构建合理,算法有效。更多还原

【Abstract】 Some emergencies,such as road accidents and work,disturb normal operation of traffic system.In some serious cases,they will lead to traffic jams.Meanwhile, the road user’s response to external environment has been various and posterior.The uncertain factors determine the uncertainty of the traffic network.In view of the travel decision-making optimization,predetermined confidence level was introduced.The problem of travel time variable was dealt with by using fuzzy theory.A model of fuzzy chance constrained programming(FCCP) was constructed,with the total travel time as the optimization target,and the trip path as the decision-making variable in a certain condition of prominence level.A hybrid intelligent algorithm for solving chance constrained programming models with fuzzy decisions was also designed.更多还原