【摘要】 对外贸易对经济增长的影响是目前经济学界的一个热点问题。本文选择典型对外贸易区——上海进行分析,利用1985-2004年上海市进出口和GDP的年度经济数据,借助协整检验、误差修正模型等方法,从不同的角度研究了对外贸易与经济增长之间的动态关系,定量地刻画了对外贸易在经济增长中的作用大小。实证结果表明:进出口对经济增长的贡献滞后一年才显著;短期内,出口比进口对经济增长的贡献大,但在长期,进口比出口对经济增长的贡献要大的多。更多还原

【Abstract】 The influence of external trade on economic growth has been one of debating problems in the economics field. On the basis of yearly economic data of import and export in shanghai from 1985 to 2004, this thesis studies the dynamic relations between external trade and economic growth and state the role of external trade played in economic growth by means of Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model. The results of empirical analysis show that import and export can obviously propel the growth of GDP lagging one year, export has more contributions to promoting economic growth in the short run, but import has more contributions in the long term.更多还原