【摘要】 "热钱通过贸易渠道流入国内"的观点较为普遍,其中有两个不准确的地方,"热钱"和"贸易渠道"。首先,我国国内金融市场处于起步阶段,外汇管制造成境外资金出入比较困难,国内不存在短期流动性强的"热钱",本文称之为"长线投机资金"。其次,这些资金并不仅仅来源于贸易渠道。对外贸易只是企业经营行为的一部分,更为合理和全面的描述是境外资金通过"外商投资企业渠道"流入国内。通过分析国外投机性资金流入国内的渠道,本文初步计算1999年至2005年长线投机资金累计存量近3000亿美元,2005年新增872亿美元,其中通过国际贸易方式形成的约327亿美元,约为当年贸易顺差的32%。但这并不意味着贸易顺差的32%是长线投机资金。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the channel of foreign long-term speculative funds inflow into China and the pos- sible stock of the funds during 1999 to 2005,and discusses the viewpoint that"hot money"flows into China by foreign trade especially.The authors suggests that,above all,there is limited room for foreign speculative funds flows since China’s financial market is relatively small,and it’s difficult for the funds inflow or outflow of China in the short time.So there maybe no real hot money in China or it could be called"long-term speculative funds".Secondly,foreign trade isn’t the only channel for this kind of money,because international trade is just one part of enterprise behaviors.It will be reasonable to say the long-term speculative funds gets into China through the channel of foreign investment enterprises.According to the calculation in the paper,it is estimated that from 1999 to 2005 the stock of foreign long-term speculative funds in China is nearly＄300 billion.In 2005,the newly-increased funds was＄87.2 billion, of which, about $ 32.7 billion or 32 percent accounting for the trade surplus of the year was created by foreign investment enterprises through international trade.更多还原