【摘要】 利用气象卫星、常规气象观测资料和水文部门提供的中尺度水情观测资料对2005年汉江秋汛进行气象水文特征分析。得出如下结论:汉江秋汛与西太平洋副热带高压的位置、强弱密切相关;在汉江上游整个流域累计面雨量达到100mm以上,如果汉江上游地区再出现一场强暴雨,将造成汉江流域发生较大的洪水;汉江上游强降水是由中尺度系统造成的,中β暴雨云团存在合并-加强-分裂的过程,其合并加强的方式有气旋式和追赶式两种;2005年汉江秋汛是仅次于1983年的大洪水,洪水的形成与降水和地质条件密切相关;汉江上游洪水的流量差与区域降水的累积值有很好的相关,洪峰由区域性的强降水造成;汉江上游洪水传播的时间具有一定的规律,由石泉到丹江口水库洪水传播的时间为36～48h,其中石泉到白河平均传播时间为24 h,白河到丹江口传播时间为12～18 h;根据降水预报,运用库容和水位的统计关系,按照一定的算法可以预测水库水位。更多还原

【Abstract】 By using the satellite data,general observations and hydrological information,the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of autumnal flood in the Hanjiang river in 2005 are analysesed.It has been found that the river flood is highly related with the west-pacific subtropical high in their positions and intensities.After the area rainfall on the upper reaches of Hanjiang river amounted to 100 mm or more,the Hanjiang river may give rise to a flood if a strong heavy rain follows to take place in the upper reaches.Mesoscale system brings strong heavy rain in the upper reaches.Meso-β cloud clusters amalgamat,grow and breaks up with cyclone and chase styles.The flood are highly related with the precipitation and geologic condition.It has a good correlation between flux-difference of the upper reaches’ flood of Hanjiang river and the accumulation of regional rainfall,and regional heavy rain brings flood peak.The upper reaches’ flood propagation ispends 36～48 h from Shiquan to Baihe and 12～18 h from Baihe to Danjiang.Based on the rainfall forecast and statistical relation between Danjiang reservoir and water level,the water level of Danjiang reservoir.can be predicted更多还原