【摘要】 暴雨的落区、落点预报仍是当今天气预报中的难题。为了逐步提高暴雨落区落点预报的准确率,利用T213数值预报产品,对2003～2005年6～8月湖北省暴雨天气过程进行综合诊断分析,着重分析了对产生暴雨贡献较大的数值预报物理量场和量值。结果表明,500、700、850 hPa假相当位温之和[Σθse(5+7+8)]的水平分布场在某一地区表现出有能量锋区存在,同时满足其它预报模型和指标,12 h后满足条件的地区有暴雨发生;当某个站点在暴雨发生前,500、700、850 hPa温度露点差之和[Σ(T-Td)]≤10°C时,同时满足其它预报指标时,12 h后该站点有暴雨发生。最后,根据同期暴雨个例的多要素综合诊断分析,归纳出数值预报场模型和预报值指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecast of rainstorm area is still a difficult problem.In order to improve the accuracy of forecast,the heavy rain processes in Hubei province during June to August of 2003 and 2005 are analyzed by using the T213 numerical forecast products.It shows that the relevant physical variable field and its distribution characters have good correlations with the rainstorm areas.For example,there will be heavy rain occurring after 12 hours over the area meeting the conditions of the forecast model and index with the energy frontal zone existing in the horizontal distribution field of the sum of pseudo-equivalent potential temperatures [Σθse(5+7+8) ] at 500 hPa,700hPa,and 850 hPa as well as the sum of dew-point deficit [ΣT-Td(5+7+8)] at 500 hPa,700hPa,and 850hPa being less than 10 ℃.The model of the numerical predict field and the forecast indexes are summarized by the multielement diagnostic analysis of the rainstorm cases in summer.更多还原