【摘要】 基于经济指标预期值整体恶化的微妙背景,美联储2007年9月18日降息50个基点,这不仅本身构成了对经济走向变化的"官方确认",而且是美国经济周期转向中货币政策制订者的必然选择,其最根本的原因在于"次级债风波"对实体经济的负面作用已经超出预期水平。美联储降息将对美国实体经济产生滞后的扩张性影响,加剧美元贬值,同时可能导致国际货币体系稳定受到负面影响。尽管受到美联储降息影响,中国出口仍将维持高速增长,货币政策将进一步趋紧,同时将经受全球流动性过剩的更大考验。更多还原

【Abstract】 Facing the deterioration of the whole economic index expectation, the Federal Reserve declared to make a half-point cut in its target interest rate on Sept. 18, 2007. This action is not only an official confirm of American economy turning but also policy maker’s inevitable choice in the situation that the negative influence of subprime woes on the real economy has surpassed the common expectation. This paper argues that the rate cuts will bring expansionary hysteresis on real economy, exacerbate the depreciation of US dollar and make negative impacts on the stability of international monetary system. As to China, the export will keep high increasing speed, the monetary policy will continue its contraction trend, and the whole economy will face the severe test of liquidity surplus.更多还原