【摘要】 2005年陕西秋淋天气明显且偏晚,通过WRF模式对秋淋期间的两次区域性暴雨模拟结果显示,暴雨雨带走向、强降雨中心位置以及强降水出现的时间段等都与实况基本吻合,预报时效可达36—48小时;模式能成功地模拟出暴雨的主要影响系统和不同时段的风场演变变化。分析表明,利用该模式可以对不同类型暴雨进行机理分析和研究,能够作为未来客观预报陕西转折性天气和暴雨天气一种新的技术手段和工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Shaanxi autumn rainfall-abundant spell in 2005 is obviously late.The simulation of two regional rainstorms during the spell through WRF numerical model shows that the extended directions of rainstorm belts,the positions of the heavy rainfall centers and the spans when the heavy rainfall happened accord with the reality.The WRF valid spell can reach 36-48 hours.The WRF can effectively simulate the main rainstorm synoptic systems and changes of wind fields with time.It can also help to analyze and study the physical causes of the rainstorms.It is hoped that the WRF become the new impersonal technology and method to predict the critical weather and rainstorms in Shaanxi in the future.更多还原