【摘要】 戈德史密斯认为,金融相关比率有提高的趋势;金融相关比率达到一定的发展阶段该比率将趋于稳定。这两个结论只是一种经验的判断,戈德史密斯并没有进行数理的论证。本文在前人的基础上主要做了以下工作:(1)探索性地推导了金融相关比率的上界极值和收敛值,证明了戈德斯密斯的两点结论,提出了在金融发展过程中可能存在的阶段性;(2)通过回归分析得到我国金融相关比率受货币化比率和金融中介比率影响较大,而经济增长率和通货膨胀率对金融相关比率影响较弱;(3)对中国的金融相关比率进行了时间序列分析,并对我国长期的金融相关比率进行了预测。作者认为金融管理者可以通过有意识的调控货币化比率和金融中介比率,间接调控金融相关比率,来选择我国金融发展的稳定路径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Goldsmith has put foreword that FIR has an increasing trend in the economic growth progress, and it may turn to be stable at a special stage. The authors of this paper has done the following works :(1) derives FIR’s limited value and the upper bound, and proves Goldsmith’s two conclusions, and derives three stages exist in the financial developing progress; (2)through regression analysis, we got the conclusion that China’s FIR are influenced by the Monetarizing ratio and Financial intermediary ratio; (3) derives the time series of China’s FIR, and forecast the trend of future of China’s FIR. The authors propose that the regulators should select the stably financial developing route by control the Monetartizing ratio and Financial intermediary ratio.更多还原