【摘要】 本文使用ALMANAC作物生长模型对黑龙江省嫩江县鹤山农场的大豆产量进行了模拟,并探讨了影响大豆模拟产量与实际产量差异的原因。研究结果发现,1991年~2003年鹤山农场大豆的平均实际产量和模拟产量分别为2·75t/hm2和3·00t/hm2左右,误差为8·9%左右;大豆的实际产量与模拟产量趋势一致,均呈降低的趋势,说明模型能够用于模拟大豆的生产。造成差异的主要原因可能是某些突发的自然灾害。模拟得到的温度和水分的胁迫日数与该地区的气候变化有较一致的关系,即温度胁迫有减少的趋势,水分胁迫有增加的趋势。模拟结果还发现,提高大豆的出苗密度可以增加大豆的产量,但增加值与生长季的降水量有一定的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Soybean is one of the main crops in northeast China and its yield is affected greatly by the climate condition and field management. Crop modeling can not only simulate the effect of environment on crop, but help farmer make decision and run agriculture, also can help analyze the possible reason of crop yield change. This article simulates the soybean yield of Heshan farm in Nenjiang County of Heilongjiang province during 1991～2003 through using ALMANAC crop growth model and explores the reasons brought about the differences between simulated yield and measured yield. Harvest indexes in crop database were gained by field trial of soybean planted in the way of traditional ridge. Soybean was planted in plot with 5 degree slop grade and 100m~2(20m×5m). The other crop’s parameters were gained from reference of related literatures. The farmers helped in data collection of field management. Parameters in the 0-20cm-soil layer were collected through soil sampling and the data of 20cm～50cm-soil layer is got from national soil survey project. Climate data during 1991～2001 came from national meteorological center. The trial station is located in Nenjiang County with a distance of 30km to Heshan. Climate data in 2002 and 2003 gathered from climate station of Heshan farm. Results show the average simulated and measured yield is 3.00t/hm~2 and 2.75t/hm~2, respectively, during 1991～2003 period with an error of 8.9%. The trend of simulated yield change is similar to the trend of measured yield, and the yield had a decreasing trend during this time. It is showed that the model can be used to simulate soybean yield in this area. Natural disasters may be the main reasons of the difference. The stress days of soybean growth had a good relation with the temperature and rainfall change. The stress days of temperature has a decreasing trend, but that of the rainfall increased during this time. Results also show that an improvement in plants density can gain more yield of soybean, and there is a linear relation between the yield increasing value and the rainfall during soybean growth season.更多还原