【摘要】 针对电力系统中某一元件故障,而导致一系列其他元件停运,并连锁反应迅速蔓延,最终发生电网崩溃的现象,文中对易引起恶性连锁反应事故的大停电机理进行了初步探讨,指出在大停电过程中,总是伴随着电网各子系统的竞争和合作,具有自组织临界特性,其过程存在着可预测性。进而基于自组织临界理论中的协同学原理,提出了一种电力系统大停电的预测模型——协同学预测模型。计算实例结果表明了大停电存在着自组织临界特性,提出的预测模型具有较高的预测精度,该模型可望为进一步深入分析电力系统连锁反应事故和大停电机理打下基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power system blackout often occurs when one of the system components fails and further leads to a series of other components’ failure.This cascading failures spread rapidly until part of power grids break down ultimately.This paper investigates the mechanism of blackout and points out that in the process of blackout,subsystems of the power grids are always competitive and cooperative.This process behaves in a manner of self-organized criticality and can be forecasted.Based on the synergetic theory of self-organized criticality,a predictive model,synergetic predictive model,for power system blackout is proposed.Simulation results show that power system blackout exists self-organized criticality,and the proposed predictive model has good precision and can be used to analyze the mechanism of power system cascading failures and blackout.更多还原