【摘要】 管理信息系统的定性预测是依靠人的观察分析能力,借助于经验和判断能力进行预测的方法。在现代定性预测方法中,有不同类型,本文仅介绍广为适用、可靠性最高的定性预测方法———德尔菲法在管理信息系统中的应用,在教务管理信息系统定性分析基础上,以数量、分数评估等方法将预测推断数量化,用统计方法去整理和评价,以提高管理信息系统定性预测的科学性和准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The qualitative forecasting of Management Information System depends on the man’s observational and analytical abilities,a method for carrying out the forecasting with the aid of experience and ability to make correct judgement.There are different categories in the modern qualitative forecasting methods and this text will only give an account of the extensively applicable and most reliable qualitative forecasting method——the application of De1phi method in the Management Information System,i.e. on the basis of qualitative analyses of educational administration management information system,quantitate the forecasting and deduction by the methods of quantitative and marks assessments and use the statistical method to make arrangements and evaluation accordingly so as to raise the scientific orientation and accuracy of the qualitative forecasting of Management Information System.更多还原