【摘要】 建立了一个模拟长江各港口之间贸易、竞争和进化的经济发展模型.用该模型进行数值模拟得到的各港口年吞吐量呈现幂函数累计分布,与实际统计结果符合.假设任意一个港口或最重要的一个港口受灾,模拟显示整个网络具有良好的应变能力,使得各港口年吞吐量反而略有增加,或者虽然略有降低但可很快恢复.这可能说明我国的市场模式正在健康发展.更多还原

【Abstract】 A model for simulating the economic development including trade activities,competitions,and evolutions of the open ports along Yangtze River is suggested.The cumulative distribution of the annual throughput of the open port,which is obtained by a numerical simulation based on the model,shows power distribution in a good agreement with the practical empirical results.Suppose the production of a random-chosen or the most important open port is hit by a natural calamity,the simulating results show that the network′s ability for meeting an emergency is encouraging,so that the year′s throughput increases a bit,or recovers very soon after a small drop.This may illuminate the proper development of the market modes in our country.更多还原