【摘要】 目的用仿真决策技术前瞻性研究城镇大医院医疗流程与资源配置的科学有效决策方法。方法采用历史数据统计分析,建立系统动力学模型及决策模拟系统。结果模拟显示,样板医院存在挂号集中(峰型分布)、病床不足、特殊检查易成为瓶颈部位等缺陷,增加预约挂号、改善分布、增加病床等可改善流程与资源配置。结论系统动力学模型可客观反映医院运行并改进流程与配置方法的价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objctive To predict the bottleneck part of medical processes and resource disposition of big hospitals in towns and cities, and to provide a scientific, convenient and quick basis for reforming policies. Method Statistical analysis of historical data was adopted to set up computer model of system dynamics and simulation system of Polcy-making. Result Model hospitals have such defects as registration concentration (peak-like distribution) , bed insufficiency, special examinations trending to become bottleneck parts and the like. Flow equipment can be improved in the proper scope by increasing preengaged registration, improving distribution and adding beds. etc. Conclusion System dynamics model, which can reflect hospital running objectively, can be used to find problems and test scientific value of the improved plan.更多还原