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SARS控制策略仿真研究:SARS控制策略及基本参数
Simulation Research of SARS Control Strategy: SARS Control Strategy and Basic Parameter
【摘要】 给出了SARS的优化控制方案、“扩大疑似病例的处理范围”和“限制人口自由流动”两种控制措施对SARS控制的作用和影响、SARS的扩散趋势是否被抑制住的一般判断标准、控制措施的延迟时间、控制盲区等内容,并指出在SARS发病早期,同时采取“扩大疑似病例的处理范围”和“限制人口自由流动”两种措施可以有效地控制住SARS病,在后期为了减轻对经济的影响,可适当放宽对人口自由流动的限制。这些不仅对SARS的控制具有重要意义,而且对其他疫病也具有广泛的借鉴作用。
【Abstract】 It is presented the optimization and control project of SARS, the function and influence of the two kinds of control measures (expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely) to SARS, the general judgment standard of the measure whether the diffusion trend of SARS is restrained, the delaying time of the control measure, the blind area of control and so on. And it is also pointed out that in the early times of SARS, taking both measures at the same time can control the SARS effectively, and that in later stage, in order to lighten the economic influence, the measure limit population flows freely can be properly relaxed. These not only have the vital significance to the control of SARS, but also have the extensive reference function to other epidemic disease.
【Key words】 SARS; optimization and control project; judgment standard; delaying time; the blind area of control;
- 【文献出处】 系统仿真学报 ,Acta Simulata Systematica Sinica , 编辑部邮箱 ,2005年04期
- 【分类号】TP391.9
- 【被引频次】3
- 【下载频次】199