【摘要】 通过对驱动城镇用地扩张的两大因素———人口和经济进行参数调整, 对城镇建设用地双因素预测模型进行了改进, 改进后的模型是一种弹性模型, 更能体现城市用地的客观规律和实际需求; 同时针对“城镇化水平预测不准确”问题, 提出了一种基于农业人口和农业人口比重预测城镇人口的新方法. 并以重庆市渝北区为例, 对模型进行了实证应用.更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents a modified two-factor forecast model of urban built-up land which is elastic and can show the objective law and actual demand of the urban built-up land much well. The modified sector is focused on the adjustment of the two factors, namely population and gross domestic product (GDP). A new forecast method of urban population is developed, which can calculate the urban population by agricultural population and its ratio. In the last, the modified model is put into practical use in Yubei district of Chongqing city.更多还原