【摘要】 目前有关管道风险分析软件仅处于半定量化水平,且实用水平普遍较低.应用系统风险可靠性分析的基本原理,以油田长输管线为分析对象,确定管线服役过程中的失效事件为顶事件,应用故障树分析法(FTA)建立故障树,并对其进行定性和定量分析,得出故障树的全部最小割集和顶事件的发生概率.对各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和关键重要度进行了计算.重点介绍了长输油气管线风险概率分析软件的总体结构、功能及其实现过程.最后给出了应用实例.更多还原

【Abstract】 The failure of long-distance oil/gas pipeline being as top accident,the fault tree of the long-distance oil/gas pipeline is established using fault tree analysis method;All the minimum cut sets and the probability of the top accident are got through the qualitative and quantitative analyses of the fault tree;the structure importance degree,the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree of all the basic accidents are calculated.The overall structure and the functions of the software and their implementation are presented.Lastly,an application case is provided.更多还原