【摘要】 人地资源矛盾是我国实施可持续发展战略中面临的重大问题。人口持续增加、耕地减少的趋势,对未来我国的粮食安全和可持续发展形成了潜在的巨大威胁。通过分析,我国耕地资源总体表现出人均占有量少、质量低、分布不均、后备资源不足。对近20年的耕地数据分析发现,退耕还林还草、农业结构调整、建设占用、自然灾害是耕地减少最主要的直接原因,其中建设占用和自然灾害,是耕地可持续利用的最大威胁。从社会经济自然复合生态系统角度出发,分析了人口、社会、经济、自然和政策等5个因素与耕地变动的相互关系和驱动作用,对未来耕地的发展趋向做出了初步判断,提出了保护耕地、保障国家粮食安全、提高可持续发展能力的相关对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The conflict between population and cultivated land resources is a big hindrance to China’s sustainable development.Persistent increase of the population and decrease of cultivated land have become a potential and thremendous treat to national food security and sustainable development.The analysis of data from the national-wide land survey (1996) and annual land-use change survey showed that the situation of cultivated land resources in China was under great tension.Cultivated land possession per capita was very scanty.General quality of cultivated land was poor,and productive capacity was low.Spatial distribution of cultivated land was uneven.Exploitable and feasible land resources to reclaim were scarse.Direct causes of cultivated land decrease included the return to pasture form cultivated land,the adjustment of agriculture structure,construction and natural hazards,among which,construction and natural hazards were the most dangerous menaces causirg permancent cultivated land loss.From the view of society-economic-nature complexity ecosystem,the driving mechanism and relationships among driving factors,such as population,society,economy,natural environment and policy were discussed,with the future cultivated land situation primarily predicted.Advices to improve cultivated land conservancy,food security and sustainable development were put forward.更多还原