【摘要】 土地利用与生态系统保护之间的矛盾直接影响着卧龙保护区及周边地区的土地覆盖变化,为考察人类活动对卧龙地区土地覆盖/利用变化的影响,对近十年卧龙两流域土地覆盖/变化进行了分区对比研究,结果表明,卧龙地区两流域及其分区土地覆盖/利用变化趋势有所不同。主要差异表现在:①寿溪、渔子溪流域虽然林地面积均有所增加,但林地破碎化程度远远高于渔子溪。灌丛在寿溪流域的比重减少而在渔子溪流域增加。②分区比较的结果为,林地的增加主要发生在寿溪保护区的外部和渔子溪保护区内部,草地的减少主要发生在两流域保护区内部。③两流域总体土地利用变化率随河谷缓冲带的扩张变化趋势相反。④两流域各类型转移概率不同导致未来转移方向的不同。Markov模型预测,未来十年渔子溪流域林地、灌丛的增加和草地的减少仍较明显,寿溪流域林地面积继续增加,农田、灌丛继续减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 The conflicts between land use and ecosystem protection influenced the landcover change of Wolong Nature Reserve and its surrounding area. In order to examine the impacts of human activities on the land use/cover change of Wolong area, the landuse changes in recent 10 years are compared within watersheds. The results showed that the trends of the landuse change were different in the two watersheds and their subareas, details were as follow. 1) The total area of woods increased slightly in Shouxi and Yuzixi, while in Shouxi, the fragment degree of woods increased significantly and much higher than Yuzixi. The area of shrubs increased inYuzixi but decreased in Shouxi. 2) Subarea comparsion research showed the area increase of woods occurred outside of the nature reserve in Shouxi and inside in Yuzixi. The area decrease of grassland occurred inside the nature reserve in the two watersheds. 3) The trends of collective land use change rate in the two watersheds are converse with the buffer expanding. 4) The different transition probabilities of landuse change resulted in different transition directions in the two watersheds. According to the Markov model, the increase of woodland and shrubs and the decrease of grassland area will maintain in Shouxi in the next 10years. So do the increase of woodland and the decrease of farmland and shrubs in Yuzixi.更多还原