【摘要】 基于中国冰川编目资料,应用冰川系统、零平衡线、冰川径流变化与冰川面积之间的关系以及冰川对环境变化的适应功能等理论,按几种不同升温率的气候情景,对全国各大流域冰川径流、面积、储量及平衡线高度等变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:平均来讲,21世纪前50年如果中国西部山区,以增温率为每年0.02K及0.03K计算,到2030年,全国冰川径流将达到最高潮,2030年后全国冰川径流将普遍回落,但至2050年仍将高于20世纪末的水平。如上述升温趋势一直维持下去,本世纪中国冰川的面积和储量将持续减少,到2030年,将减少6%~9%;到2050年减少10%~15%;到本世纪末,全国冰川径流将回落到1980年的水平以下,全国冰川面积将减少23.2%~34%。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the Glacier Inventories of China,glaciers in China can be divided and sub-divided as 16 large,44 less large glacier systems based on the watershed.On the basis of the structure of the glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state,functional models of glacier system responding to climate warming were established,using Kotlyakov-Krenke’s equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature and the representativity of glacier system’s median size.The models are applied to the study of theresponse of glacier runoff to climatic change.The effect of decreasing air temperature due to rising of glaciers’ ELA and reduction of glaciers area were considered in these models simultaneously.The modeling results under the climatic scenarios with temperature increasing rate of 0.02 K/a and 0.03 K/a indicate that,by the year of 2030,glacier runoff of China will reach climax level,then it will fall down,and get to the level of 20th’s after the year of 2050.If climate continuously warming,the glacier area will continuously reduce,and by the year of 2030,2050,2100,the glacier area in China will averagely reduce for about 6%~9%,10%~15%,23.2%～34% respectively.更多还原