【摘要】 实际汇率的变动将通过出口价格、出口份额变动、进口成本等途径影响企业的劳动需求,在考虑不确定性的情况下,实际汇率的波动还会影响企业的预期甚至通过影响国内投资对企业的劳动需求产生间接影响。通过考察实际汇率对中国制造业的总体影响,我们发现人民币实际升值将导致制造业就业的下降,而制造业出口份额及投资水平的提高会部分地抵消这一影响。鉴于贸易部门与非贸易部门之间相对劳动生产率增长和资本流入可能引发人民币实际升值,进而对国内经济政策的实施造成不利后果,故须引起政策制定者的重视。更多还原

【Abstract】 Changes of real exchange rate have important impact on domestic economy. They would influence the labor demand through effects on export prices, changes of export share and import costs. The uncertainty of the real exchange rate changes can influence firm’s expectation, and also influence labor demand through the chain of domestic input. We examined the effects of real exchange rate on China’s manufacturing industry. We found RMB appreciation would lead to a decrease of employment in this industry, while the increase of its export share would partially offset this effect. Relative productivity growth between trade and non-trade sector as well as capital flows would impose adverse impact on the enforcement of economic policies.更多还原