【摘要】 选取台湾岛附近海域(20~27°N,117~125°E)为计算区域,对1949~1999年发生在该海域的西太平洋台风的路径分类、月际变化、年际变化、周期特征、移速和强度等要素进行了气候统计学分析,得出7~9月是台风发生的关键月份,台风发生频次的年际变化表现为下降的趋势,且1995~1999年近5年时间台风频次一直稳定维持在较低水平。用Mann-Kendall方法做突变分析和t检验,没有明显的突变年。利用小波分解技术,计算得出影响台湾岛海域的西太平洋台风年发生频次具有4~6年和13~14年左右的周期。西北行路径西太平洋台风是登陆台湾岛和进一步登陆我国大陆的主要台风,西行路径台风51年来没有登陆我国大陆的记录,转向行路径台风强度最大,平均移速最快。更多还原

【Abstract】 Choosing the Taiwan Island sea area (20~27 °N,117~125 °E)as the key area, the paper analyzes the track, the annual and interannual variability, the periodicity, the moving speed and the strength of the West-Pacific typhoon in it during the period from 1949~1999. Conclusions can be drawn. The domain period is from July to September. A decreasing trend can be found in the interannual timescale. Especially from 1995 to 1999, the frequency of occurrence was at lower level. No sharp change can be found with the Mann-Kendall method and t-test. By the wavelet decomposition, the 4~6 and 13~14 years cycle can be found. The northwestward moving West-Pacific typhoon which affects the Taiwan sea area is one of the most important types of typhoon reaching the mainland of China. There has been no westward moving West-Pacific typhoons that arrive in the mainland of China for 51 years. The strength of turning track typhoon is the most powerful, which has the fastest speed.更多还原