【摘要】 利用河北省70个站自建站至2000年近50 a的系统气温观测资料,分析了河北省冷暖变化的年际和年代际特征,及其区域差异和季节差别,并估计了河北省未来50 a冷暖变化趋势。结果表明:河北省年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的年际和年代际变化都呈现增温趋势,增温幅度由大到小依次为:年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年平均最高气温;全省年平均、最高、最低气温变化趋势与其五个分区的变化趋势具有整体一致性,都呈现升温趋势,但各区域的增温幅度不一,增幅最大的区域是冀东平原区,最小的区域是河北省北部;各季气温变化呈现春、秋季平均气温变化程度相对比较平缓,冬季增温幅度最大的特点,自80年代末始,暖冬现象明显;在全球和中国气候将继续变暖的背景下,河北省气温估计未来50 a升高在1~2℃之间。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the observational data in recent 50 years(from the beginning of data to 2000) in Hebei,this paper mainly studied the interannual and interdecadal change of warmness and coldness of the area,and the regional and seasonal differences of the change have been analyzed.Moreover,the tendency for next 50 years has been estimated.The results indicated: average,minimum and maximum temperatures all showed a trend of increasing,but the warming degree of annual minimum temperature is the highest,whereas the counterpart of maximum temperature is the slightest.The average,minimum and maximum temperatures of the whole area and its’ five parts shared the same increasing tendency,but their extents of warming are different: the east plain of Hebei bears the greatest warming,while the north Hebei bears the slightest;the temperature of spring and autumn is milder,whereas that of winter is the greatest.From the end of 1980s,winters have been continually warmer than normal.In the next 50 years,the warming of climate in China and globe will continue.The warming of Hebei will be about 1～2 ℃ by 2050.更多还原