【摘要】 探讨了以灾害样本为集值的基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型的气象灾害风险评价方法,利用西北五省区主要农作物旱灾面积资料,对西北农业旱灾进行风险评价实例分析,通过比较表明西北农业受旱指数,成灾指数发生灾损的概率风险估计值与实际农业旱灾较吻合,该方法对灾害样本少以及小区域范围的灾害风险评价也较适合。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory of information diffusion, the method of meteorology disaster risk assessment is investigated with the calamity specimen. Based on the statistical data of agricultural drought areas of northwest China, the probability of agricultural drought risk is assessed by index of agricultural drought and cause of disaster, comparative analysis shows that the estimated value is consistent with actual one ,and it may apply to a few disaster specimen data and small district.更多还原