【摘要】 基于T2 13数值预报产品 ,以水汽收支平衡方程为基础 ,研制预报强降水的落区及强度的预报方法 ,并利用此方法制作 6h面雨量的预报。该方法在 2 0 0 3年汛期淮河流域洪涝期间进行了应用 ,利用所得面雨量结果与实况降水进行各种误差分析。结果表明 ,预报正确率较高 ,该方法较为可靠 ,有一定的预报价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on T213 numerical prediction products and the equation of water-vapor budget, the method of predicting rainfall areas and their intensity is introduced. The area rainfall prediction in 6 hours was made. The method was applied in the flood season along the Huaihe River in 2003. The error analysis was made between prediction and observation. The results indicate that the method is useful and reliable.更多还原