【摘要】 多套观测资料检测表明,近百年来中国气候明显变暖,变暖趋势达到0.2~0.8℃/100a,近50年变暖趋势更达到0.6~1.1℃/50a。气候代用资料研究表明,中国20世纪的变暖在近千年中属于明显的,但对于20世纪是否为近千年中最暖的百年,还有待更多的观测研究验证。气候模式归因分析表明,20世纪中国的变暖与太阳活动、火山活动和人类活动有关,近50年的明显变暖可能与人类排放引起的大气中温室气体浓度增加有一定联系。但是,目前这一结论仍然存在着不确定性,尚需更多的研究工作。由于中国区域辽阔,不同区域气候差异较大,而且20世纪前50年观测资料匮乏,近千年的代用资料分布不广,因此,应该进一步考证中国20世纪的气温变化和在近千年中的地位。更多还原

【Abstract】 A warming of 0.2-0.8 ℃/100 a in China for the 20th century has been detected by several sets of observed data, especially 0.6-1.1 ℃/50 a for the last 50 years.The 20th century was a warmer period for the last 1 000 years in China as provided by some proxy data.There are not enough evidences in China to show, however, that it was the warmest century during the past millennium.It should be certified by the more proxy data in future.The detection and attributions of the climate warming in China for the 20th century as simulated by the climate models with some radiative forcings indicate the key roles played by solar radiation, volcanoes, and increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in atmosphere.The marked warming of the last 50 years could be preliminarily attributed to the anthropogenic forcing, but uncertainties are still large, and the further researches could reduce the uncertainties.更多还原