【摘要】 选取1998—2004年5—9月逐日的实时观测资料,在100~120°E,30~50°N范围内,对08时和20时高空各层流场进行尺度分离,计算出各时刻的平滑场和分离场。结果表明,在原始场上没有表现出来的中尺度系统在分离场上能够清楚地表现出来,分析研究这些中尺度天气系统的移动和演变及产生的天气特点,总结出影响大同市对流性强降水、普通大降水的主要中尺度系统;建立对流性强降水、大降水的预报模型,为天气预报提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper selects the daily real observed data over the area between 30-50°N,and 100-120°E from May to September 1998—2004,separates 0800 and 2000BST streamline fields at 500hPa and 700hPa levels into the smooth and separated streamline fields.The result show that mesoscale systems which are blurred in the original streamline fields are clearly discernible in the separated streamline fields.Then,based on the analyses of the movement,evolution and weather character of those mesoscale systems,this paper summarizes main mesoscale systems producing Datong’s convective strong precipitation and heavy rain,and builds prediction models for convective strong precipitation and heavy rain,thus providing some evidence for Datong’s weather prediction.更多还原