【摘要】 利用长江三角洲地区80个台站建站以来到2002年的逐日降水资料,用RE OF和统计分布方法,计算并分析了长江三角洲地区年最大日降水量、年最大一次连续过程降水量的极端降水特征。结果表明:长江三角洲一次连续过程的降水量极大值的空间分布相对集中,时空变率小于日降水量极大值,这对于洪涝灾害的预测与评估具有很好的实用价值;强降水的渐近分布中,日极值降水的分布以Weibull分布最为普遍,一次连续过程降水以对数正态分布最为普遍。更多还原

【Abstract】 The annual extremes characteristics of daily and a continuous process rainfall are analyzed by REOF and statistical models using the daily precipitation data of 80 stations in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta mainly belongs to the following patterns:South-east difference pattern of annual extremes of daily rainfall;North-south difference pattern of annual extremes of a continuous process rainfall.The four kinds of statistical models (Gumbel,Lognormal,Weibull,and Person Ⅲ) were used to fit the annual extremes series of daily and a continuous process rainfall.Test results have showed that the Weibull distribution is more suitable to the daily rainfall,and the lognormal distribution fits the continuous process rainfall.The spatial distribution of the extremes of a continuous process rainfall is relatively concentrated,and its spatial-temporal variabilities are smaller than those of the extremes of daily rainfall.更多还原