【摘要】 为了把握上海科技未来发展形势,上海市科学技术委员会开展了技术预见。针对信息技术、生物技术、新材料和先进制造技术领域未来发展趋势设计了调查问卷。本文以信息技术的技术预见为例,运用德尔菲法,相关分析法,聚类分析法对未来信息技术的发展进行了详细的论述。通过对上海市技术预见整个过程的实证研究,拓展了技术预见的方法体系,对我国的技术预见实践具有一定的参考借鉴价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 To grasp the future position of science and technology,Science and Technology Committee of Shanghai developed the technological forecasts.They designed questionaries,aiming at the trend of domains of information technology,biology technology,new material and advanced fabrication technology.Applying the methods of Delphi,pertinence analysis and clustering analysis to the domain of information technology,discuss the trend of future information technology in detail.Through the empirical study on the technological forecasts of Shanghai,enrich the method system of the technological forecasts and can be used for reference to the technological forecasts of our country.更多还原