【摘要】 当观测资料的数据量少而又存在多个相互影响或关联的变量时,常用的灰色GM(1,1)模型不能全面考虑多个变量,GM(1,n)模型也不能考虑相互影响问题,而采用MGM(1,n)模型,较好地解决了这一问题。MGM(1,n)模型是GM(1,1)模型在n元多变量情况下的推广,其参数能够反映实际工程或社会系统中多个变量间的相互影响、相互制约的关系。内容包括:建模变量的选择,建立n元微分方程组,求解变量的时间响应函数和模型检验,并对GDP和R&D进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The general grey model doesn’t work normally when observation data is insufficient and mutual effect or interrelation exists between variables.MGM(1,n) model,which is an extension of the GM(1,1) model for n-variable,is introduced to solve the problem.The principle of variable selection,establishment of differential equations for n-variable,deduction of time response function for solving the variables as well as the ststistical tests of the model are give in detatiled,and using it to forecasting the future input and output of R&D and GDP.更多还原