【摘要】 采用逐步回归统计方法,对闽西北地区永安和尤溪2个县(市)21年(1980~2000年)中与早稻穗颈瘟相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出影响早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中永安市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的降雨日数距平(X19 )、3月下旬的露日数(X62 )和4月下旬的雾日数(X71 );尤溪县的气象预测因子为3月中旬的雾日数(X67 )和5月上旬的雾日数(X72 )。依此建立了两地早稻穗颈瘟预测的数学模型,对模型进行了2年(2001~2002年)的验证,并对2003年早稻穗颈瘟进行了预测应用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Meteorological factors relating to the early-season rice panicle blast in Northwest of Fujian Province in 21a（from 1980 to 2000） were picked out by Stepwise Multiple Regress,and the key forecast factors were selected. The meteorological forecast factors of Yong’an City were as follows: Raining days in the middle ten days of March(X₁₉),dew days in the last ten days of March(X₆₂)and foggy days in the last ten days of April(X₇₁); the meteorological forecast factors of Youxi County are foggy days in the middle ten days of March(X₆₇) and foggy days in the first ten days of May (X₇₂).Then a mathematical model for the forecast of the early-season rice panicle blast in the two cities were designed and proved in 2 years （from 2001 to 2002）.The model was practically used to forecast the early-season rice panicle blast in 2003.更多还原