【摘要】 针对复杂不确定性系统的特性,将知识发现理论方法与传统的预测理论方法结合起来,讨论了适用于预测的知识发现的理论与挖掘方法,构建了基于知识发现的多目标、多因素集成化预测模型(IFMK),并通过对油气储量、产量和需求量的预测验证了预测模型的有效性与实用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the characteristics of complex uncertain system, by combining knowledge discovery theory with traditional forecasting methods, the paper discusses both theory and methods of knowledge discovery suitable for forecasting, and constructs multi-objective and multi-factor Integrated Forecasting Model based on Knowledge (IFMK). Its effectiveness and practicability are tested by forecasting reserves and yield as well as demand of petroleum.更多还原