我国股市与宏观经济相关关系的“三阶段演进路径”分析

【摘要】 股市与宏观经济的相关性是一个颇具争议的问题。本文首先从理论上分析了两者之间的关联性,然后提出我国股市与宏观经济相关性的“三阶段演进路径”假设,并进行了实证检验。结果表明,1997年是一个拐点,此前两者无关,此后两者呈弱正相关。本文对这一结论作出了解释和进一步的分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 The correlation between stock market and macroeconomic is a disputative question. At first the paper theoretically analyzes the correlation between them, then proposes a "three-phase path" assumption. The result of empirical research shows that the year of 1997 is an inflexion, that is, before 1997, there was no relationship between these two factors, while after the year there shows less positive correlation between them. The paper further explains and analyzes this conclusion.更多还原