【摘要】 综合利用了用于超短期负荷预报的线性外推原理和基于相似日的短期负荷预测方法,相似日的选取采用了严格的差异度量方法,使得所取的相似日与预测日负荷最可能相似;线性外推法也弥补了相似日法固有的缺点,有效地提高了负荷预测的精度,本文方法对于天气异常变化时的负荷预报具有很强的适应性,实际应用表明本文所用方法效果良好。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecast using linear extrapolation usually used in super-short-term load forecast based on similar historical day data. The selection of similar day adopts strict difference evalution functions to make the load of the choosed days most similar to that of forecasted day. And the linear extrapolation makes up the inherent defect of the way of similar day and improves the accuracy of the load forecast effectively.The method is more adapative to the weather changing abruptly, the results indicate the method is a practical one for load forecast.更多还原