【摘要】 人类活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因之一,在中国、日本等国家,90%以上的森林火灾是由人为因素引起的。为了量化人类活动对森林火灾的影响,本文基于日本的三级网格系统,对日本全国范围内近年来的森林火灾数据、土地利用率数据和人口密度数据进行了综合分析,研究了人口密度对火灾发生频率的定量影响规律。结果表明:森林火灾发生频率与人口密度之间呈现出幂律关系,经过一步的分析,发现两者之间存在具有边界效应的简单关系,即渐近幂律分布。本文的研究结果对于森林火灾的防治,特别是对于火险的预测具有实用意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Human activity is one of the most important causes of forest fires. More than 90% of forest fires are connected with human factor. In order to quantify the impact of human activity on fire, the forest fire, land usage and population data in Japan are analyzed focusing the correlation between population density and fire frequency based on the mesh-code system of Japan. The results indicate that the relation between fire frequency and population density satisfies power law. A further analysis show that the relation is am asymptotic power law with boundary effect. The results is practical for the forest fire protection and forest fire danger prediction.更多还原