【摘要】 以珠江口海域近10a来的COD、NH4 N、NO2 N的监测值,把其当作灰色因子,视珠江口海域为灰色环境,应用灰色理论建立GM (1,1)模型,对该入海口的部分污染物进行污染预测。所建模型经残差检验和后验差检验,符合预测规律,具有一定的有效性、可行性和适应性。并可在此基础上,进一步分析珠江口海域的污染的原因,从量化上了解其污染的程度,也为以后分析其他海域奠定基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the monitored value of COD, NH 4-N,NO 2-N in Pearl River Estuary in last 10 years , the assessment on the environment quality was made applied the grey theory and to build the GM(1,1) model, and to predict the value of pollutant. The model is the accordance with the forecast rule,and the validity ,feasibility and suitability. So , the cause of pollution in Pearl River Estuary may be further studied,to understand the polluted degree from the quantity, to set up the tough base for the sake to analyze the other sea area in the future.更多还原