【摘要】 植物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统,针对这一特点,本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方法,建立了植物病虫害测报中的GM(1,1)模型,测报准确性较高,模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平,发展系数小于0.3,可用于该地区植物病虫害作中长期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The management of plant diseases and insect pests was a complexity system. This paper introduced the basic models of grey system and the author gave the GM(1,1) model of plant diseases and insect pests using the grey system. The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level,its expand modulus (a) was less than 0.3 .So the model could be used as mediunrterm or long-term forecasting for plant diseases and insect pests.更多还原