【摘要】 认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM)是第二代人因可靠性分析方法中的代表方法之一,它具有追溯和预测的双向分析功能。介绍了CREAM追溯分析方法的基本思想,给出了追溯分析的实现框架和具体步骤。应用CREAM追溯法对三哩岛事故进程中的重要人因失误事件进行了根原因追溯分析,结果表明根原因是和电站的情景环境有关的,是迫使人因失误发生的因素,也说明了CREAM追溯分析方法的实用性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is a representative second-generation human reliability analysis method and it has a binary function-retrospection and prediction. The basic thought of the retrospective analysis method of CREAM is introduced. The framework and the practical steps to finish the retrospective analysis are also given. Based on the retrospective analysis method of CREAM, four significant human failure events in the TMI accident are analyzed. The result shows that the root causes are related with the context of the power plant which is the human-error-forcing factor, and it also proves the usefulness and validity of the retrospective analysis method of CREAM.更多还原