【摘要】 利用TaPL3 (Version 3 0 0 )模型计算了天津地区p,p’ DDT通过大气和水体的长距离传输潜力 (LRTP) .通过灵敏度分析 ,确定了模型的关键参数 .利用蒙特卡罗方法对模型结果进行了不确定性分析 .结果表明 ,天津地区p ,p’ DDT通过大气的LRTP为 473～ 762km ,均值为 5 79km ;通过水体的LRTP为 940～ 10 95 8km ,均值为 2 2 5 4km .通过大气的LRTP的结果分布比通过水体的LRTP更集中 .与国外同类结果比较 ,通过大气的LRTP略低 ,而通过水体的LRTP则明显偏低更多还原

【Abstract】 The long-range transport potential(LRTP) of p,p’-DDT through air and water in Tianjin is calculated with model TaPL3(Version 3.00). The key parameters of the model is identified by sensitivity analysis. The uncertainty of the output is analyzed by Monte Carlo method. According to the output of the model, the LRTP of p,p’-DDT through air in Tianjin is 473～762km, and the mean value is 579km. The LRTP through water is 940～10958km, and the mean value is 2254km. The output of LRTP through air is more centralized than that of LRTP through water. Compared to the similar foreign research, the LRTP through air is a little lower, but the LRTP through water is obviously lower.更多还原