【摘要】 利用1961～2004年地面观测资料,分析了海西东部及环青海湖地区年、季气候变化的特征和规律。结果表明,海西东部及环青海湖40多年来年季平均气温平均增温幅度为0.3～0.6℃,平均最低和最高气温多数季节增温具有非对称性,并且20世纪90年代四季增暖最为明显。夏季和冬季降水略有增加,而过渡季节降水变化基本呈减少趋势。年均和秋、冬、春、夏四季的气温变化倾向率均为正值,分别为0.48、0.57、0.692、0.337、0.373℃/10a。冬、夏季降水变化的倾向率为0.442、4.672mm/10a;而秋、春季了水变化的倾向率为-2.304、-0.022mm/10a。冬季降水量和累计积雪量的缓慢增加容易导致该地区地表积雪的积累,极易形成雪灾或低温冻害。春季气温升高、降水减少,干旱发生的频次将增加;秋、冬季气温上升幅度比较大,将有利于病虫害的越冬、繁殖,加重病虫害对农牧业生产的危害程度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The meteorological data collected in 1961~2004 was used to analyze annual and seasonal patterns and characteristics of the climatic changes in east Haixi and the regions around Qingghai Lake. The results showed that in recent forty years, the average seasonal temperature had increased by 0.2~0.6℃ with its highest and lowest values increasing in a asymmetric manner in most cases, and remarkable temperature increase took place in all the four seasons in 1990’s; The rainfall had slightly increased in summer and winter but generally tended to decline in the transforming seasons. The annual, autumn, winter and spring and summer temperatures all had varied with their positive tendency rates at 0.48,0.57,0.629,0.337,0.373℃/10a. The winter and summer rainfalls had varied with the tendency rates at 0.442 and 4.672 mm/10a but the autumn and spring rainfalls had changed with their tendency rates at -2.304 and -0.022 mm/10a. The slow increases of rainfall and snow in winter were very liable to lead to snow accumulation on ground surface and then snow damage or low temperature and freezing damages. in spring, the drought frequency increased because the temperature rose and the rainfall declined,; the big increases in temperature were beneficial for insects and pathogens to overwinter and reproduce thereby intensifying their damage to farming and animal raising.更多还原