【摘要】 根据分形理论，不仅揭示了民勤绿洲不同时期土地空间分形结构，而且计算了民勤绿洲土地空间结构分维与稳定性指数，并分析了二者的动态变化趋势；进而根据灰色系统理论建立了民勤绿洲土地空间结构分维非等间距预测模型。所得结论对于民勤绿洲生态环境建设具有积极意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Minqin oasis is located in the lower reaches of the Shiyang River basin (38°20’～39°10’N, 102°45’～103°55’E), an arid region in northwest China, its total area is 2381 km~2, it is surrounded by the Badain Juran Desert and Tengger Desert on its western, northern and eastern sides, and its southern part connects with the Wuwei Basin. Some ecological and environmental problems in the oasis have become more and more serious in recent years. Based on the fractal theory, in this paper a case study on the land spatial fractal structure in the Minqin Oasis, Gansu province, is carried out by using the land use data derived from the TM images in 1987, 1994 and 1998 and the ETM images in 2001, the fractal dimensions and stability indexes of land spatial structure in the Minqin Oasis are calculated, and their dynamic change is analyzed. Moreover, the prediction model of fractal dimensions of land spatial structure is developed. The land use in the Minqin Oasis during the different periods is divided into 9 types, i.e., the residential areas, garden plots, woodlands, shrubbery lands, sparse woodlands, desert grasslands, saline or alkaline lands, sandlands and arable-lands. The results show that there are the quantitative relations between the total patches and the girth-area double-logarithms of land use types in the Minqin Oasis; the land spatial structure in the Minqin Oasis was the most complicated in 1994, simple and the most stable in 1998, and the most unstable in 1994; the fractal dimensions and stability indexes of spatial structure of the woodlands, shrubbery lands and sparse woodlands fluctuated significantly, but that of residential areas, garden plots, desert grasslands, saline or alkaline lands, sandlands and arable-lands fluctuated smoothly; the complexity of spatial structure of land use types in the Minqin Oasis is in an ordination of residential areas>woodlands>desert grasslands>arable-lands>saline or alkaline lands>sandlands>garden plots>shrubbery lands>sparse woodlands, and the stability of spatial structure of land use types is in an ordination of sparse woodlands>shrubbery lands>garden plots>sandlands>saline or alkaline lands>arable-lands> woodlands>desert grasslands>residential areas.更多还原