【摘要】 用新疆春季(3～5月)的沙尘日数和北半球500hPa月环流特征量等资料,使应用相关和逐步回归分析方法,研究了新疆春季沙尘天气与前一年的月环流特征量的关系,相关分析和统计结果表明:(1)新疆春季的沙尘天气不仅与同在中纬度地区的西风带上的经向环流、东亚槽等有关,还更多地与中低纬地区的副热带高压以及高纬地区的极涡等系统的月环流特征量有关。(2)新疆春季沙尘天气与前一年夏、秋季的大气环流之间存在明显的隔季相关现象。(3)利用前一年月环流特征量建立了新疆春季沙尘天气日数之间的9个回归模型,9个分析模型都通过了0.001信度检验。其中,南疆的3个模型沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘和全疆的扬沙、浮尘模型试报效果最好。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the relationship between the dust weathers and the eigenvalues of preceding monthly atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang in spring is researched by using the methods of correlation analysis and stepwise regression based on the data of occurring days of dust weathers in Xinjiang in spring.The analyzed and statistical results are as follows: (1)The dust weathers in Xinjiang in spring are not only related to the longitudinal circulation and the trough over East Asia in the mid-latitude area,but also to the eigenvalues of the subtropical high in the low-latitude area and of the polar vortex in the high-latitude area;(2)There is a significant relationship between the dust weathers in Xinjiang in spring and the eigenvalues of the atmospheric circulation in the past summer and autumn;(3)Nine regressive models of the dust weathers in Xinjiang in spring are developed by using the eigenvalues of atmospheric circulation in the previous year,all of them pass the reliability test of 0.001. Among them,the accuracies of the results of forecasting dust storms,blowing sands and floating dusts by using the three models for south Xinjiang and the results of forecasting blowing sands and floating dusts by using the two models for whole Xinjiang are high. However, the forecasted results of dust storms in Xinjiang are not so ideal,it is considered that Xinjiang is vast,and the regional features of dust storms are significant,so it is too vast to accurately forecast the dust storms that the whole Xinjiang is regarded as one region in analyzing the occurrence of dust storms;the dust weathers in Xinjiang are characterized by multiple spatial scales,especially the dust storms.更多还原