【摘要】 电力需求增长的周期性波动规律是进行电力规划时必须考虑的重要因素,而经济的周期变化是影响电力需求周期变化的主要因素。文章基于系统动力学的状态空间模型对电力需求与国内生产总值(GrossDomesticProduct,GDP)增长率时间序列分别进行周期项与趋势项的分解,发现电力需求与GDP分解的周期项之间存在很强的相关关系;基于此关系及电力需求增长率序列数据自身的变化规律,采用计量经济模型预测了2004~2008年我国电力需求增长率,以期为当前的电力规划工作提供参考数据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The periodic fluctuation regularity is an important factor to be considered during the power planning, while the periodic variation of economy is the main factor influencing the periodic variation of power demand. On the basis of state space model of system dynamics, the decomposition of periodic term and trend term in the time series of both power demand and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are carried out respectively, and it is discovered that there is a strong correlativity between the periodic terms of power demand and the GDP. Based on this correlativity and the variation rule of power demand’s growth rate sequence data itself, the power demand growth rate from the years of 2004 to 2008 in China is forecasted by use of econometric method to provide reference data for current power planning.更多还原