【摘要】 随机生产模拟是电力市场中进行电价预测和发电管理的有力工具,但传统的随机生产模拟方法对于热电联产系统并不适用。文中对传统的随机生产模拟和目前的联产系统的生产模拟进行了改进,提出了一套针对热电联产进行随机生产模拟的新方法。对机组模型、热电联合等效概率密度函数进行简要介绍,给出了运行指标、系统可靠性指标的计算方法,以及处理机组最小技术出力即机组分段运行情况的方法和如何确定机组带负荷顺序的方法。最后通过一个算例对上述方法进行了验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 The probabilistic production simulation (PPS) is an important tool for the prediction of power prices and management of generation plan in the electricity market. However, the conventional method of PPS is not suited to the combined heat and power (CHP) units. This paper generalizes the traditional PPS algorithm of power system to include the CHP units and describes the models of units and the equivalent load probability density function (ELPDF). The formulas of the units’ operational parameters and the system reliability indices are given and the management of minimum unit technique output -as well as the method for determining the loading merit order are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility of the algorithm proposed.更多还原