【摘要】 流域是涵盖众多因素的复杂巨系统,其健康持续的发展需要科学的综合规划。作者采用不确定性多目标规划(IMOP)模型来研究这一复杂系统。该模型是传统多目标规划法的一种拓展,它将多种系统组分纳入一个框架综合考虑,较好地协调多个目标,尤其能有效处理系统中的不确定性信息。基于此模型,针对流域环境—经济系统特点,建立了流域环境—经济系统不确定性多目标规划模型(IMOPWEES)。同时,将模型运用于四川省邛海流域规划,得到2种情景不同阶段下的优化方案,以种植结构、旅游服务业结构、水资源配置、污染物排放、森林扩展及水土流失为例予以结果说明和情景比较。研究表明,IMOPWEES用于流域环境—经济系统规划,具有科学性,实用性和可操作性,其为流域相关研究工作提供了一种有效工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Watershed, a kind of complex huge system incorporating lots of constituents, demands proper methods to carry out integrated planning so as to guide its sustainable development. In this paper, an integrated approach, the Inexact Multiobjective Programming (IMOP) model is promoted to solve the problem. The IMOP improves upon the existing multiobjective programming methods, such as fuzzy/stochastic MOP methods. It can bring the system components into a single framework, and efficiently coordinate and optimize objectives. Also it can better address system uncertain features, especially considering that it allows uncertainty presented as interval numbers to be directly communicated into modeling process without necessarily known possibilistic or probabilistic information. IMOP is regarded as a useful tool for system analysis and optimization, and it has already been widely employed worldwide to solve many optimization problems. It can reconcile multiple and conflicting objectives scientifically and deal with the insufficient and inexact information effectively as well. At the meantime, watershed system is characterized by dynamic, multi-objective and information insufficiency. Therefore IMOP is suitable to the watershed planning and optimizing. Resting on the watershed’s characteristics, the Inexact Multi-Objective Programming on Watershed Economic-Environmental System (IMOPWEES) model is built and applied to Lake Qionghai Basin, Sichuan Province. In the case study, the optimum schemes in different periods under different scenarios are obtained. Moreover, the aspects of the plant structure, tour-service structure, water resource allocation, pollutants discharging, forest expanding and soil erosion are particularly considered in the paper to demonstrate the results and the scenario analyses. The study fully indicates the effectiveness, practicality and operability of the IMOPWEES model and its applicability to the integrated planning of watersheds. Undoubtedly, it also provides a good means for the related researches.更多还原